The Minnesota Twins faced a crushing blow at Progressive Field, suffering a dispiriting defeat to the Cleveland Guardians. Despite holding a three-run lead, the Twins faltered, ultimately losing 4-3 after Griffin Jax surrendered a game-winning two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning.
The loss marked the Twins' 18th defeat in their last 27 games, a stretch that's seen them struggle mightily on both sides of the ball. This slump has significantly impacted their postseason aspirations, with their standing for the third AL wild-card spot now dangerously tenuous, reduced to a mere 1 1/2 game lead. FanGraphs had the Twins' postseason odds at a healthy 95.4% as of September 5, but those odds have now dwindled to 76.4%.
Offensive struggles have been a consistent theme for the Twins recently. In 12 of their last 27 games, they've failed to score more than three runs, batting just .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and .381 slugging percentage during that period. That offensive inconsistency has left them frustrated and searching for answers. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," lamented manager Rocco Baldelli.
Pitching Woes Compound Problems
The pitching staff hasn’t fared much better. The bullpen, which had maintained a respectable 3.84 ERA and was ranked tenth in win probability added (plus-3.41) through the first 123 games, has seen its performance plummet. Over the last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA has ballooned to 5.47, with a league-worst minus-2.75 win probability added. Griffin Jax echoed the growing concern within the team, stating, "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The rotation has also struggled; the rest of the starters have posted a 6.07 ERA over the same period, averaging only 4.38 innings per start. This over-reliance on an already stretched bullpen has contributed to the team's downward spiral. Baldelli summed up the team's predicament poignantly: "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this."
Upcoming Challenges and a Slim Margin for Error
The grueling schedule has not done the Twins any favors either. They’ve played 17 games in the last 18 days, a grinding stretch that has taken a toll on the players. Despite the adversity, key players such as Max Kepler are expected to return, potentially providing a much-needed boost to the lineup. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown signs of life, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month.
Even with their recent acquisitions, like lefty Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles, who has a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, the Twins will need more than just fresh faces to turn their season around. His role within the team remains flexible, with Derek Falvey offering, "He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are both hot on the Twins' heels, just two games back. While the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, it offers little respite given the Tigers' recent surge, going 23-10 in their last 33 games. López aptly summarized the precarious situation: "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time."
As the Twins navigate these treacherous waters, their ability to close out games late has been called into question. They had leads in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. This inability to seal victories when they're within grasp has been particularly agonizing for a team that knows what's at stake.
While the road ahead is fraught with challenges, the Twins must find a way to rally and reinforce the fundamentals that once positioned them as a postseason favorite. Only time will tell if they can muster the resilience needed to reverse their fortunes.