The Denver Nuggets, crowned the 2022/23 NBA champions, are set to face off against the Indiana Pacers on Tuesday night. The stage is set at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis for what promises to be an enthralling contest, with tip-off scheduled for 7:00 p.m. ET.
Nuggets Enter as Favorites
Denver heads into the game as favorites, with a 5-point advantage on the spread. The Nuggets have been performing well this season, boasting a 30-14 record that places them third in the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Pacers hold a respectable 24-19 record, securing the seventh spot in the Eastern Conference.
Betting lines have set the total for the game at O/U 239 points. While the Nuggets are favored, their Against The Spread (ATS) record this season stands at 19-24-1, indicating they cover the spread in 44.2% of their games. Post-win games seem to challenge Denver's ability to cover, with their ATS percentage dipping to 35.7%. On the road, their ATS record drops further to 8-15-0, although they have maintained an average margin of victory of five points and are seeking their third consecutive road win.
Recent Form and Head-to-Head
The Pacers have had a mixed run of form recently, losing four of their last five games. However, they've shown resilience at home, winning five out of their last six at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Conversely, the Nuggets have won four of their last five games overall and have dominated their recent encounters with the Pacers, enjoying seven consecutive victories in this matchup. Earlier this month, Denver defeated Indiana 117-109, with Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and Michael Porter Jr. each scoring 25 points, and Aaron Gordon adding 20.
Injury Updates
Player availability could play a crucial role in the upcoming game. Tyrese Haliburton is listed as questionable for Indiana due to a hamstring issue, while Isaiah Jackson and Andrew Nembhard are doubtful. For Denver, Vlatko Cancar, Collin Gillespie, Braxton Key, and Julian Strawther will be absent. However, there's positive news for the Nuggets as Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are probable to play.
Players to Watch
Jokic, ranking 13th in points per game with an average of 26.1 and fourth in the league for rebounds and assists, continues to be a formidable force for Denver. Murray also contributes significantly, averaging 20.9 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. On the Pacers' side, Haliburton leads the team in PPG and assists, but his participation is uncertain. New addition Pascal Siakam, who joined from the Toronto Raptors, scored 21 points in his debut against the Portland Trail Blazers and will be someone to keep an eye on.
Betting Insights
Despite the Nuggets' less-than-stellar ATS performance this season, some analysts believe their average 5-point margin of victory positions them favorably to cover the spread against the Pacers. Bet Rivers has priced the Nuggets at -175 on the moneyline, reflecting their confidence in Denver's chances.
The Pacers, however, have demonstrated strong coverage in their own right, with an ATS record for the 2023/24 season of 24-18-2. They cover 60% of their home games and have an impressive 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs. This suggests that while Denver may enter as favorites, Indiana has the potential to upset the odds, especially considering their solid home form.
Historical Context
History favors the Nuggets, as Indiana has not managed to secure a victory over Denver since 2020, and they have lost their last four home games against them. The question remains whether the Pacers can break this streak or if the Nuggets will continue their dominance in this particular NBA rivalry.
Final Thoughts
As the Denver Nuggets prepare to extend their winning streak against the Indiana Pacers, all eyes will be on key players like Jokic and Murray, alongside the hopeful return of Porter Jr. and Gordon. Indiana, facing injury concerns and a challenging recent history against Denver, will look to leverage their home court advantage and prove the oddsmakers wrong. With both teams eager to assert themselves, Tuesday's clash is poised to be a pivotal moment in their respective seasons.
